Spain is now the top contender to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup after defeating France 2-0 in the semi-final, advancing to the final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday, July 19. For Canadian fans following the tournament co-hosted by Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, this marks the culmination of a dramatic summer of football.
This article breaks down Spain’s current betting odds, their historic World Cup record, their knockout path, and exactly how to watch the final from Canada.
Can Spain Win the World Cup 2026? The Quick Take
Yes — Spain is the current favourite to lift the trophy. Following their semi-final victory over France, bookmakers have shifted Spain to approximately -155 (roughly a 61% implied win probability) for the final match. Spain will face the winner of the England vs. Argentina semi-final, played on July 15, with sportsbooks favoring Spain against either opponent — slightly more so against England.
What makes Spain’s run exceptional is their defensive dominance. Heading into the final, they have conceded only one goal across the entire tournament — a strike from Belgium in the quarter-final. Combined with a technically controlled midfield and a ruthless attacking front, Spain resembles the team that dominated world football from 2008 to 2012.
Spain’s World Cup History: How Many Titles?
Spain has won the FIFA World Cup exactly one time. That title was secured in 2010, placing them among a short list of nations with precisely one World Cup victory — including England (1966) and France (1998, 2018).
Despite their two-decade dominance in club football and national team style, Spain has only reached the quarter-final stage on other notable occasions: 1934, 1950, and 2002. The 2010 triumph remains their only championship. A win on July 19, 2026, would double their tally to two.
When Did Spain Last Win the World Cup?
Spain’s last (and only) World Cup win occurred in 2010, hosted by South Africa. They defeated the Netherlands 1-0 in the final, with Andrés Iniesta scoring the decisive goal in extra time — a moment etched in World Cup history as one of the greatest clutch finishes.
The 2010 title capped a golden era beginning with Euro 2008, followed by the 2010 World Cup, and Euro 2012. Key players like Iniesta, Xavi, Sergio Ramos, Iker Casillas, and David Silva formed the core of that historic squad. Since then, Spain’s World Cup performances have been inconsistent: group-stage exit in 2014, Round of 16 losses in 2018 and 2022.
This 16-year drought explains why reaching the 2026 final feels so significant — it’s Spain’s first World Cup final appearance since 2010.
Spain’s Path to the 2026 Final
Spain’s route to East Rutherford included some of the tournament’s toughest opponents:
- Knockout Round 1: Beat Austria
- Round of 16: Defeated Portugal in a statement victory
- Quarter-final: Edged Belgium (conceding their only tournament goal)
- Semi-final: Crushed France 2-0 — a result that flipped betting odds and drew tactical criticism from Kylian Mbappé
This progression transformed Spain from a tournament dark horse into the outright favourite, leading oddsmakers to view them as more likely to win than France.
Who Will Spain Play in the Final?
Spain’s final opponent will be the winner of the England vs. Argentina semi-final on July 15, 2026. Sportsbooks rate Spain as a slight favourite over England and near-even against Argentina.
Regardless of the opponent, the final will be a heavyweight clash: either a tactical rematch of classic Spain-England battles or a showdown with Argentina’s decorated generation.
Current Odds to Win the 2026 World Cup
As of now, Spain is priced at roughly -155 to win the final, making them the clear favourite. This is a major shift from earlier in the tournament when France held the top odds and Spain was seen as a strong but not top-tier contender. The semi-final win over France vaulted Spain to first place on most major sportsbooks.
For context, Spain’s odds moved from mid-tournament outsider to favourite largely due to their defensive record — just one goal conceded in six matches is extraordinary at this stage.
Comparative Odds Table: Top Contenders to Win 2026 World Cup
| Team | Odds | Implied Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | -155 | ~61% |
| France | +350 | ~22% |
| Argentina | +600 | ~14% |
| England | +650 | ~13% |
Key Players Driving Spain’s 2026 Run
Spain’s 2026 squad mixes experienced internationals with a new generation of attacking talent. This blend has sharpened their edge in the final third while maintaining the tournament’s best defensive record by goals-against.
The balance between a possession-based midfield and defensive discipline mirrors the 2010 title-winning side — the primary reason Spain is now seen as capable of ending its 16-year wait for a second star.
How Canadians Can Watch the World Cup 2026 Final
For Canadian fans, the final kicks off at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 19, 2026, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey — just outside New York City and within the Eastern time zone most Canadians follow.
The match will be broadcast in Canada on CTV and TSN, with streaming available via Bell Media platforms. As Canada co-hosted matches alongside the U.S. and Mexico, this final represents the culmination of a World Cup that partially unfolded on Canadian soil.
Final Verdict: Will Spain Win?
Based on current form, odds, and defensive record, Spain holds the strongest position to win the 2026 World Cup. A July 19 victory would secure their second title — 16 years after their only previous triumph in 2010.
Nothing is decided until the final whistle — international finals often humble favourites — but for the first time since Iniesta’s extra-time winner against the Netherlands, Spain enters a World Cup final as the team to beat.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many World Cups has Spain won?
Spain has won one FIFA World Cup, in 2010.
When did Spain last win the World Cup?
Spain’s last (and only) World Cup win was in 2010, beating the Netherlands 1-0 in the final.
Is Spain favoured to win the 2026 World Cup final?
Yes. As of the semi-final stage, Spain is priced as the favourite at roughly -155, ahead of both potential final opponents, England and Argentina.
What time is the World Cup 2026 final in Canada?
The final kicks off at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 19, 2026, and will air on CTV and TSN in Canada.