FIFA World Cup 2026 — Group D, Matchday 2
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA | Friday, June 19, 2026 | 11:00 PM ET / 8:00 PM PT
Watch in Canada: TSN (Bell Media)
Turkey and Paraguay arrive at Levi’s Stadium with the same problem: they already need points, and they need them now. After opening-night defeats, another setback would leave either side on the edge of elimination before the final round of Group D.
Turkey were beaten 2-0 by Australia in Vancouver, while Paraguay were overwhelmed 4-1 by the United States in Los Angeles. With the USA and Australia already ahead on three points, this match is effectively a survival test. A draw keeps both alive, but only barely. A win changes the picture completely.
Turkey need a response fast
Turkey’s return to the World Cup has come with a sharp reminder that reputation means little without end product. This is their first appearance since 2002, when they finished third and earned lasting respect, but that history will not protect them if the attack stays blunt.
Against Australia, Turkey had control for long stretches but could not turn possession into goals. That was the most worrying part of the defeat. A team built around attacking talent should not leave a match with nothing to show after dominating the ball. Vincenzo Montella now has to find a cleaner final pass, better movement in the box, and more urgency in the early phases of attack.
The core is still impressive. Arda Güler gives Turkey a creative edge in central areas, Kenan Yıldız brings direct running and one-v-one threat, and Hakan Çalhanoğlu remains the steady hand from midfield with the kind of delivery that can decide a tight game in one dead-ball moment. The issue is not talent. It is whether that talent can work together quickly enough under pressure.
Paraguay are dangerous only if Turkey are careless
Paraguay come in with a different identity. Gustavo Alfaro has built a side that values structure, discipline, and patience. They qualified through a hard South American campaign and did enough to reach the tournament, which says a lot about their resilience even if the process was not always pretty.
The opener against the United States exposed the limits of their defensive shell. Paraguay were opened up far too easily and conceded four times, which is not the profile of a team that wants to survive a short, ruthless group stage. They still have the traits Alfaro trusts most, but they must look much sharper at both ends of the field.
There is also a useful local angle for Canadian viewers: Andrés Cubas, who plays for the Vancouver Whitecaps, should again be central to Paraguay’s midfield work. His job is simple on paper and difficult in practice. He has to slow Turkey down, win second balls, and help Paraguay keep the game from turning into a track meet.
Up front, Julio Enciso is the player most likely to make something happen out of nothing. Miguel Almirón adds work rate and experience, while Gustavo Gómez leads the back line with authority. Paraguay do not need to outplay Turkey for long stretches. They only need to stay compact, keep the score level, and wait for one opening.
The game will likely be decided in the middle
This is the kind of match where midfield control matters more than possession alone. Turkey will try to play forward with speed and pressure, but they cannot force the issue so much that Paraguay get space to counter. Paraguay, in turn, will want to make the game narrow, slow the rhythm, and use Turkey’s frustration against them.
That is where Çalhanoğlu and Cubas become key figures. If Turkey can move the ball cleanly into advanced areas, Paraguay’s back line will be under heavy strain. If Paraguay can break up the flow early and deny Güler time between the lines, Turkey may again drift into sterile possession.
Set pieces may matter just as much as open play. Turkey have a clear advantage in delivery, while Paraguay have the size and grit to defend their own box. In a match with this much tension, one free kick or one corner could change everything.
What to expect
Neither team can afford a slow start. That alone should create a sharper, more nervous first half than either side preferred in its opener. Turkey carry the better attacking ceiling, but Paraguay are organized enough to make this uncomfortable for long stretches.
The difference may come down to which side handles pressure better in front of goal. Turkey have more ways to create a chance, and they should spend more time in advanced positions. Paraguay have the edge in survival instincts, but they did not show enough defensive stability against the United States to inspire complete confidence.
Prediction: Turkey 2-1 Paraguay
Turkey look likelier to find the first breakthrough, and that may force Paraguay to open up earlier than they want. Enciso could still produce a moment that makes the finish tense, but Turkey have the stronger attacking options and the greater need to react after their first loss.
If the Crescent-Stars do what they failed to do in Vancouver, they stay alive. If not, Paraguay will be the team that leaves with at least one result restored to its campaign.
Kickoff is at 11:00 PM ET, which is 8:00 PM PT for viewers on the West Coast.